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Figure – Book cover of Toby Segaran’s, “Programming Collective Intelligence – Building Smart Web 2.0 Applications“, O’Reilly Media, 368 pp., August 2007.
{scopus online description} Want to tap the power behind search rankings, product recommendations, social bookmarking, and online matchmaking? This fascinating book demonstrates how you can build Web 2.0 applications to mine the enormous amount of data created by people on the Internet. With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting data-sets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you’ve found it. Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general — all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application.
{even if I don’t totally agree, here’s a “over-rated” description – specially on the scientific side, by someone “dwa” – link above} Programming Collective Intelligence is a new book from O’Reilly, which was written by Toby Segaran. The author graduated from MIT and is currently working at Metaweb Technologies. He develops ways to put large public data-sets into Freebase, a free online semantic database. You can find more information about him on his blog: http://blog.kiwitobes.com/. Web 2.0 cannot exist without Collective Intelligence. The “giants” use it everywhere, YouTube recommends similar movies, Last.fm knows what would you like to listen and Flickr which photos are your favorites etc. This technology empowers intelligent search, clustering, building price models and ranking on the web. I cannot imagine modern service without data analysis. That is the reason why it is worth to start read about it. There are many titles about collective intelligence but recently I have read two, this one and “Collective Intelligence in Action“. Both are very pragmatic, but the O’Reilly’s one is more focused on the merit of the CI. The code listings are much shorter (but examples are written in Python, so that was easy). In general these books comparison is like Java vs. Python. If you would like to build recommendation engine “in Action”/Java way, you would have to read whole book, attach extra jar-s and design dozens of classes. The rapid Python way requires reading only 15 pages and voila, you have got the first recommendations. It is awesome!
So how about rest of the book, there are still 319 pages! Further chapters say about: discovering groups, searching, ranking, optimization, document filtering, decision trees, price models or genetic algorithms. The book explains how to implement Simulated Annealing, k-Nearest Neighbors, Bayesian Classifier and many more. Take a look at the table of contents (here: http://oreilly.com/catalog/9780596529321/preview.html), it does not list all the algorithms but you can find more information there. Each chapter has about 20-30 pages. You do not have to read them all, you can choose the most important and still know what is going on. Every chapter contains minimum amount of theoretical introduction, for total beginners it might be not enough. I recommend this book for students who had statistics course (not only IT or computing science), this book will show you how to use your knowledge in practice _ there are many inspiring examples. For those who do not know Python - do not be afraid _ at the beginning you will find short introduction to language syntax. All listings are very short and well described by the author _ sometimes line by line. The book also contains necessary information about basic standard libraries responsible for xml processing or web pages downloading. If you would like to start learn about collective intelligence I would strongly recommend reading “Programming Collective Intelligence” first, then “Collective Intelligence in Action”. The first one shows how easy it is to implement basic algorithms, the second one would show you how to use existing open source projects related to machine learning.
“I think this participative technology, social software as people call it can transform individual lives, firms, government and it is not all about sort of broad capitalist attitudes. I think it can affect some of the things people really care such as health education education, welfare.”, JP Rangaswami.
Directed by Ivo Gormley, Us Now is a 60 min. documentary about the power of mass collaboration, government and the internet. Question is: In a world in which information is like air, what happens to power? New technologies and a closely related culture of collaboration present radical new models of social organisation. This project brings together leading practitioners and thinkers in this field and asks them to determine the opportunity for government.
a) Dynamic Optimization Problems (DOP) tackled by Swarm Intelligence (in here a quick snapshot of the dynamic environment)
b) Swarm adaptive response over time, under severe dynamics, over the dynamic environment on the left (a).
Figs. – Check animated pictures in here. (a) A 3D toroidal fast changing landscape describing a Dynamic Optimization (DO) Control Problem (8 frames in total). (b) A self-organized swarm emerging a characteristic flocking migration behaviour surpassing in intermediate steps some local optima over the 3D toroidal landscape (left), describing a Dynamic Optimization (DO) Control Problem. Over each foraging step, the swarm self-regulates his population and keeps tracking the extrema (44 frames in total).
[] Vitorino Ramos, Carlos Fernandes, Agostinho C. Rosa, On Self-Regulated Swarms, Societal Memory, Speed and Dynamics, in Artificial Life X – Proc. of the Tenth Int. Conf. on the Simulation and Synthesis of Living Systems, L.M. Rocha, L.S. Yaeger, M.A. Bedau, D. Floreano, R.L. Goldstone and A. Vespignani (Eds.), MIT Press, ISBN 0-262-68162-5, pp. 393-399, Bloomington, Indiana, USA, June 3-7, 2006.
PDF paper.
Wasps, bees, ants and termites all make effective use of their environment and resources by displaying collective “swarm” intelligence. Termite colonies – for instance – build nests with a complexity far beyond the comprehension of the individual termite, while ant colonies dynamically allocate labor to various vital tasks such as foraging or defense without any central decision-making ability. Recent research suggests that microbial life can be even richer: highly social, intricately networked, and teeming with interactions, as found in bacteria. What strikes from these observations is that both ant colonies and bacteria have similar natural mechanisms based on Stigmergy and Self-Organization in order to emerge coherent and sophisticated patterns of global foraging behavior. Keeping in mind the above characteristics we propose a Self-Regulated Swarm (SRS) algorithm which hybridizes the advantageous characteristics of Swarm Intelligence as the emergence of a societal environmental memory or cognitive map via collective pheromone laying in the landscape (properly balancing the exploration/exploitation nature of our dynamic search strategy), with a simple Evolutionary mechanism that trough a direct reproduction procedure linked to local environmental features is able to self-regulate the above exploratory swarm population, speeding it up globally. In order to test his adaptive response and robustness, we have recurred to different dynamic multimodal complex functions as well as to Dynamic Optimization Control problems, measuring reaction speeds and performance. Final comparisons were made with standard Genetic Algorithms (GAs), Bacterial Foraging strategies (BFOA), as well as with recent Co-Evolutionary approaches. SRS’s were able to demonstrate quick adaptive responses, while outperforming the results obtained by the other approaches. Additionally, some successful behaviors were found: SRS was able to maintain a number of different solutions, while adapting to unforeseen situations even when over the same cooperative foraging period, the community is requested to deal with two different and contradictory purposes; the possibility to spontaneously create and maintain different sub-populations on different peaks, emerging different exploratory corridors with intelligent path planning capabilities; the ability to request for new agents (division of labor) over dramatic changing periods, and economizing those foraging resources over periods of intermediate stabilization. Finally, results illustrate that the present SRS collective swarm of bio-inspired ant-like agents is able to track about 65% of moving peaks traveling up to ten times faster than the velocity of a single individual composing that precise swarm tracking system. This emerged behavior is probably one of the most interesting ones achieved by the present work.
Abraham, Ajith; Grosan, Crina; Ramos, Vitorino (Eds.), Stigmergic Optimization, Studies in Computational Intelligence (series), Vol. 31, Springer-Verlag, ISBN: 3-540-34689-9, 295 p., Hardcover, 2006.
TABLE OF CONTENTS (short /full) / CHAPTERS:
[1] Stigmergic Optimization: Foundations, Perspectives and Applications.
[2] Stigmergic Autonomous Navigation in Collective Robotics.
[3] A general Approach to Swarm Coordination using Circle Formation.
[4] Cooperative Particle Swarm Optimizers: a powerful and promising approach.
[5] Parallel Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms with Adaptive
Simulated Annealing.
[6] Termite: a Swarm Intelligent Routing algorithm for Mobile
Wireless ad-hoc Networks.
[7] Linear Multiobjective Particle Swarm Optimization.
[8] Physically realistic Self-Assembly Simulation system.
[9] Gliders and Riders: A Particle Swarm selects for coherent Space-time Structures in Evolving Cellular Automata.
[10] Stigmergic Navigation for Multi-agent Teams in Complex Environments.
[11] Swarm Intelligence: Theoretical proof that Empirical techniques are Optimal.
[12] Stochastic Diffusion search: Partial function evaluation in Swarm Intelligence Dynamic Optimization.
Fig. – For a small sum Londoners may leave messages for friends in public spaces. When writing on “notificator” messages moves up behind window, remaining in view for two hours. Known as the “notificator,” the new machine was installed in streets, stores, railroad stations or other public places where individuals may leave messages for friends. Appeared in the American Modern Mechanix magazine (August, 1935) (via Modern Mechanix blog) + Maikelnai’s blog).
World’s first Twitter? Hell no! First World Twitter is kind of old, … it were Public Bathrooms !! As well as Hobo signs.
Last year, at the beginning of October I decided to dedicate my second post on financial markets (I, II) to Black Swans. Swans are beautiful animals, but while white swans are vulgar and omnipresent at every pond, black swans are rare! Meanwhile, 2 days ago (June 1) the Wall Street Journal comes with this very awkward - and by all means for that precise reason - interesting article written by journalist Scott Patterson, where Mr. Taleb’s name pops-up again (image below).
Well, … let’s face it: you could put your money in the bank and have – let’s say – a 3% revenue at the end of your fiscal year. Or you could apply it to raise a new fancy gourmet restaurant at your local vicinity. Restaurants and local food stores are known to have 5-7% revenues in one year, not to speak on the immense burden they represent as well as for some associated risks – specially these days. But then you may think – better than banks, right? Right! Or, just to give you another example on this increasing scale - raising a little bit the risk -, on the other hand you could apply your money in stock markets. Main financial indexes (Dow Jones, NASDAQ, etc) are known to have an annual average revenue of 10-12% (since 1918). Not these days of course, where high volatility and entropy in the markets are installed. Well, emergent countries like China are raising themselves at 12%/year also. We could go on and on with so many other examples. Some say that Eolic parks could achieve 40%. Normally the cost of one eolic tower is around 1 million euros, which could be paid back after one year producing energy trough wind at normal operating conditions. The rest are maintenance costs, as well as initial investment in terrains, etc. So, what’s new? Consider this. For moments imagine yourself having 100% in revenues, just last year, at this precise dramatic context. That’s 10 times what the market does in regular years, 20 times what your favorite restaurant does. Moreover, there is a substantial difference between all these examples. If you keep dropping money at the restaurant (for instance the revenue you have earned in the last year), still liquid revenues will be the same in the next year (unless you open a new dinner room next to the first one, while the awful burden keeps increasing). Some business are static and linear in time while others are exponential. As Alice in the wonderland, you will need to keep running twice as faster in order to be at the same place. Amazing those differences, no? Well, not for those “lovely” animal creatures known as Black Swans. According to Patterson, … Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by Mr. Taleb’s long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. Universa now runs about $6 billion, up from the $300 million it began with in January 2007. Excerpts from the Wall Street Journal article (Black Swan Fund Makes a Big Bet on Inflation) follow below. So, why the hell I do not feel at all surprised by this?! Really, I am not. Let me just say, I do have my own reasons:
[...] A hedge fund firm that reaped huge rewards betting against the market last year is about to open a fund premised on another wager: that the massive stimulus efforts of global governments will lead to hyperinflation. The firm, Universa Investments L.P., is known for its ties to gloomy investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller “The Black Swan,” which describes the impact of extreme events on the world and financial markets.
Funds run by Universa, which is managed and owned by Mr. Taleb’s long-time collaborator Mark Spitznagel, last year gained more than 100% thanks to its bearish bets. Universa now runs about $6 billion, up from the $300 million it began with in January 2007. Earlier this year, Mr. Spitznagel closed several funds to new investors….
Mr. Taleb doesn’t have an ownership interest in the Santa Monica, Calif., firm, but he has significant investments in it and helps shape its strategies. The term “black swan,” which has become a market catchphrase in the last few years, alludes to the once-widespread belief in the West that all swans are white. The notion was proven false when European explorers discovered black swans in Australia. A black-swan event, according to Mr. Taleb, is something that is extreme and highly unexpected. … [...]
For some seconds, just imagine having these 50 m² – 8 meters tall artifact constructed (above) by tiny Giant Architects in a plaza over a big city near you. Over this youtube video several scientists have filled the big city unearthed with 10 tens of cement during 3 days. Then calmly (taking several weeks), have digg it to the bone. To have a clue on what I mean just imagine having all these at Times Square plaza in New York! or at the front-door of the Frank Gehry’s Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao (in fact a giant spider is also there – check photo below). Colonies of eu-social insects use stigmergy in order to do this, being a good reference the work done by Karsai back in 1999 at the Artificial Life MIT Press Journal (here is the abstract – unfornately I have it on paper but not scanned):
# István Karsai, “Decentralized Control of Construction Behavior in Paper Wasps: An Overview of the Stigmergy Approach“, Spring 1999, Vol. 5, No. 2, Pages 117-136.
Grassé [26] coined the term stigmergy (previous work directs and triggers new building actions) to describe a mechanism of decentralized pathway of information flow in social insects. In general, all kinds of multi-agent groups require coordination for their effort and it seems that stigmergy is a very powerful means to coordinate activity over great spans of time and space in a wide variety of systems. In a situation in which many individuals contribute to a collective effort, such as building a nest, stimuli provided by the emerging structure itself can provide a rich source of information for the working insects. The current article provides a detailed review of this stigmergic paradigm in the building behavior of paper wasps to show how stigmergy influenced the understanding of mechanisms and evolution of a particular biological system. The most important feature to understand is how local stimuli are organized in space and time to ensure the emergence of a coherent adaptive structure and to explain how workers could act independently yet respond to stimuli provided through the common medium of the environment of the colony.
Another interesting paper (available online) is the more recent work by Mason at the 8th Artificial Life conference, in 2002. Below I have selected part of the introductory text:
# Zachary Mason ,”Programming with Stigmergy: Using Swarms for Construction“, in Artificial Life VIII Conf., Standish, Abbass, Bedau (eds)(MIT Press), New South Wales, Australia, pp. 371-375, 2002.
(…) Termite nests are large and complex. A nest may be as much as 104 or 105 times as large as an individual termite (Boneabeau et al. 1997) a ratio unparalleled in the animal kingdom. The nests of the African termite sub-family Macrotermitinae are composed of many substructures, such as protective bulwarks, pillared brood chambers, spiral cooling vents, galleries of fungus gardens and royal chambers. For all the architectural sophistication of termite nests, termites themselves are blind, weak and apparently not responsive to a coordinating authority. This work attempts to borrow and generalize the termite construction-algorithm, permitting artificial, decentralized swarms to be programmed to build complex, composable structures.
How do small, blind termites manage to build (relatively) huge, intricate nests? Work on this question includes a simple, decentralized building model (Grasse 1959) (Grasse 1984), an empirical study of termite building behavior (Bruinsma 1979), a mathematical model of the synthesis of pillars in termite nests (Deneubourg 1977), and a model explaining how modest environmental variation can cause the same termite behaviors to generate qualitatively different structures (Boneabeau et al. 1997). Most relevant to this work is (Bruinsma 1979), which records three feedback mechanisms governing termite behavior. In the first, a termite picks up a soil pellet, masticates it into a paste and injects a termiteattracting pheremone into it. When the pellet is deposited, the pheremone stimulates nearby termites to pellet-gathering behavior and makes them more likely to deposit their pellets nearby. Second, small obstacles in the terrain stimulate pellet deposits and can seed pillars. Finally, a trail pheremone allows more workers to be drawn to a construction site. Termites and many social insects interact stigmergically - that is, communication is mediated through changes in the environment rather than direct signal transmission. Computer simulations have used stigmergy to reproduce termite’s pillar-making behavior and ant’s foraging and the spontaneous cemetery building. These applications rely of qualitative stigmergy | individual agents react to a continuous variations in the environment. An example of quantitative stigmergy is (G. Theraulaz 1995), a simulation of wasp nest building. Wasps build nests by depositing cells on a lattice. Whether an empty cell is lled depends on the adjacent cells. Because all wasps have the same deposit-triggers, multiple wasps are able to simultaneously work on a single nest without without ruining each others work. A set of deposit-triggers is coherent if each no stage in the building process can be confused with an earlier stage by making only local observations, thus obviating the need for centralized control.
The goal of this work is to generalize the construction methodologies of the social insects and create a language for stigmergically assembling complex structures. Such a language permit swarms of agents to erect interesting architectures without benefit of a central controller or explicit inter-agent communication. The primary advantage of this approach is that stigmergically controlled swarms have minimal communication and no coordination overhead. Also, very little processing is demanded of agents, and the swarm can tolerate a degree of agent error. On a more abstract plane, this work is an example of designing emergent behavior. (…)
Back in 2003 I was photographed by João Bracourt, a friend and professional photograph which among other things (web design + painting) travels around the world within big professional surf events (he is right now on it’s way to Indonesia), covering it for main surf magazines. Back then (Sept. 2003) we were enjoying ourselves with a big group late nigth at Bairro Alto, the main bar and restaurant district in Lisbon.
The t-shirt I’m wearing here is from COSI – Complexity in Social Sciences Summer School. One month earlier have been invited among other people to give a lecture in Spain about my work, there at COSI (Baeza, Andaluzia). After all these years the PPT file (Stigmergy as a possible exploratory walk up to collective life-like complexity and behaviour) is still available. As well as those from Gerard Weisbuch (Research Director of the Complex Networks and Cognitive Systems Team within the Statistical Physics Laboratory of the l’Ecole Normale Supérieure in Paris, France) and Rosaria Conte (head of the Division of Artificial Intelligence, Cognitive Modelling & Interaction at the Institute of Psychology of the Italian National Research Council), among others. Many other research materials concerning complexity and social sciences are still available at COSI’s 2003 main site.
(at Bairro Alto, Lisbon, Sept. 2003 - taken by João Bracourt)
(at Bairro Alto, Lisbon, Sept. 2003 - taken by João Bracourt)
Figure – A sequential clustering task of corpses performed by a real ant colony. In here 1500 corpses are randomly located in a circular arena with radius = 25 cm, where Messor Sancta workers are present. The figure shows the initial state (above), 2 hours, 6 hours and 26 hours (below) after the beginning of the experiment (from: Bonabeau E., M. Dorigo, G. Théraulaz. Swarm Intelligence: From Natural to Artificial Systems. Santa Fe Institute in the Sciences of the Complexity, Oxford University Press, New York, Oxford, 1999).
The following research paper exploits precisely this phenomena into digital data.
[] Vitorino Ramos, Fernando Muge, Pedro Pina, Self-Organized Data and Image Retrieval as a Consequence of Inter-Dynamic Synergistic Relationships in Artificial Ant Colonies, in Javier Ruiz-del-Solar, Ajith Abraham and Mario Köppen (Eds.), Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence and Applications, Soft Computing Systems – Design, Management and Applications, 2nd Int. Conf. on Hybrid Intelligent Systems, IOS Press, Vol. 87, ISBN 1 5860 32976, pp. 500-509, Santiago, Chile, Dec. 2002.
Social insects provide us with a powerful metaphor to create decentralized systems of simple interacting, and often mobile, agents. The emergent collective intelligence of social insects “swarm intelligence” resides not in complex individual abilities but rather in networks of interactions that exist among individuals and between individuals and their environment. The study of ant colonies behavior and of their self-organizing capabilities is of interest to knowledge retrieval/ management and decision support systems sciences, because it provides models of distributed adaptive organization which are useful to solve difficult optimization, classification, and distributed control problems, among others. In the present work we overview some models derived from the observation of real ants, emphasizing the role played by stigmergy as distributed communication paradigm, and we present a novel strategy (ACLUSTER) to tackle unsupervised data exploratory analysis as well as data retrieval problems. Moreover and according to our knowledge, this is also the first application of ant systems into digital image retrieval problems. Nevertheless, the present algorithm could be applied to any type of numeric data.
(to obtain the respective PDF file follow link above or visit chemoton.org)
Gum election in the public streets of Berlin – “Who sucks the worst? Vote with your gum“. Several weeks before the election on United States, this rather simple but extraordinary concept spread from NY city to San Francisco, from St. Louis to São Paulo, from Berlin to Sydney within a few days. This kind of remembers me one of my friend’s (Ivo et al’s) project – Stick Me!, due to some similar features. Even nowadays my own refrigerator has one Stick Me! sticker over it and I really enjoyed participating on it in the past via one very quick and humble “Stick Me Mate” proposal, while playing blitz chess with friends at a bar nearby my house.
A bunch of people (promoting Collective Intelligence?) is using the environment as a way to communicate (like over any chessboard). Communication is indirect, but still they communicate through the alterations and patterns they impose on the environment itself. Meanwhile, imposing a mark or sign somewhere, increases the probability of a second response later in time – a response to a stimulus (as ants put their pheromone marks on the ground). Though here however (on both projects) only positive feedback is used.
In fact, Mother Nature has conceived a very outstandingly simple and better strategy: their signs and cues vanish in time, simple as that! For instance, pheromone, a chemical substance segregated by ants and termites evaporates in time. Over here however, there is no evaporation at all working on (societal agents are not entitled to use negative feedbacks or using vanishing marks), which can curse it’s own dynamic – unless someone destroys the posters, of course. Amazon book recommendation system, works as well this way, that is by uniquely making use of positive feedbacks (people that bought this X book also as bought Y, etc). Unfortunately, Amazon system along with his wish lists could not integrate that someone who bought the X book did not bought Z (while others have done it), which basically leads to a snow-balling effect that does not self-organize in time (adapts) to new potential good-reading books. What you end up seeing is just the overall majority consensus, the “minimum common multiple” as I sometimes call it, who tends to over-look and underestimate some high potential new-coming solutions (over this precise context, good books coming in). Amazon should instead look carefully to some scientific works on collaborative filtering. Instead the consequences are this: check here for a real user feedback on what Amazon is suggesting, or in fact not suggesting at all.
Not only their system tends to adapt slowly, since the only thing it’s promoting is nothing else but memory (exploitation, which could be achieved by positive feedbacks), as he is not learning (exploration, which could be achieved by negative feedbacks), when we know that on the contrary, a delicate compromise between both is in fact of huge importance. The difficult but possible systemic trick is to remember the past as simultaneously innovating. If as a whole the system only remembers the past, no innovation is possible causing dramatic consequences when the “environment” changes. This could lead to stagnation. On the other hand, if too much systemic pressure is put on innovation itself, energy is lost, leading the system to explore the universe of possible solutions in a quite “”stupid” trial-and-error like random manner. Some dynamics between one thing (memory) and the other (learning) could be checked here (figs. 4,5,6,7 and 19), along with their speed.
After all a gum or a sticker is nothing else than a tag -as web blogging tags and internet tag clouds are. My question is – Could they vanish over time as I believe and propose they should? Having that question in mind, while looking at these precise public street projects, there are also other conceptual bridges we may found, as far as I recognize.
Let me refer at least 4, with the help of some passages below from other texts: (1) Hobo signs and codes (as well as the bottom-up like emergence of norms and ethical codes between them), (2) the role of Positive and Negative feedbacks briefly discussed above, (3) Swarm Intelligence and of course, (4) Stigmergy. In what specifically regards Hobo signs let me say that they are quite clever. Since they are done with chalk! So, rain and erosion could erase them, little by little, day by day. Thus, solutions that were good in the past, but no longer exist or that are partially vanished over time, tend to be replaced by new fresh ones, appropriated for the present, only loosing part of the whole systemic memory, serving us with new stimulus (we tend to respond to those fresh ones), allowing a continuous adaptation to reality. As I said in the past over a scientific invited lecture (not the right place to say it, though!), signs, quotes, delayed desynchronized dialogues and phrases over the doors of public bathrooms follow similar trends and tend to be stigmergic. In what regards the following four passages, I leave to you the connection between them (sorry for this now long food for thought post):
(1) [...] Synergy, from the Greek word synergos, broadly defined, refers to combined or co-operative effects produced by two or more elements (parts or individuals). The definition is often associated with the quote “the whole is greater than the sum of its parts” (Aristotle, in Metaphysics), even if it is more accurate to say that the functional effects produced by wholes are different from what the parts can produce alone. Synergy is a ubiquitous phenomena in nature and human societies alike. One well know example is provided by the emergence of self-organization in social insects, via direct (mandibular, antennation, chemical or visual contact, etc) or indirect interactions. The latter types are more subtle and defined by Grassé as Stigmergy to explain task coordination and regulation in the context of nest reconstruction in Macrotermes termites. An example, could be provided by two individuals, who interact indirectly when one of them modifies the environment and the other responds to the new environment at a later time. In other words, stigmergy could be defined as a typical case of environmental synergy. Grassé showed that the coordination and regulation of building activities do not depend on the workers themselves but are mainly achieved by the nest structure: a stimulating configuration triggers the response of a termite worker, transforming the configuration into another configuration that may trigger in turn another (possibly different) action performed by the same termite or any other worker in the colony. Another illustration of how stimergy and self-organization can be combined into more subtle adaptive behaviors is recruitment in social insects. Self-organized trail laying by individual ants is a way of modifying the environment to communicate with nest mates that follow such trails. It appears that task performance by some workers decreases the need for more task performance: for instance, nest cleaning by some workers reduces the need for nest cleaning. Therefore, nest mates communicate to other nest mates by modifying the environment (cleaning the nest), and nest mates respond to the modified environment (by not engaging in nest cleaning); that is stigmergy. [...],
in Vitorino Ramos, Juan J. Merelo, Self-Organized Stigmergic Document Maps: Environment as a Mechanism for Context Learning, in AEB´2002 – 1st Spanish Conference on Evolutionary and Bio-Inspired Algorithms, E. Alba, F. Herrera, J.J. Merelo et al. (Eds.), pp. 284-293, Centro Univ. de Mérida, Mérida, Spain, 6-8 Feb. 2002.
(2) [...] To cope with the difficulty of hobo life, hobos developed a system of symbols, or a code. Hobos would write this code with chalk or coal to provide directions, information, and warnings to other hobos. Some signs included “turn right here”, “beware of hostile railroad police”, “dangerous dog”, “food available here”, and so on. For instance: a cross signifies “angel food,” that is, food served to the hobos after a party. A triangle with hands signifies that the homeowner has a gun. Sharp teeth signify a mean dog. A square missing its top line signifies it is safe to camp in that location. A top hat and a triangle signify wealth. A spearhead signifies a warning to defend oneself. A circle with two parallel arrows means to get out fast, as hobos are not welcome in the area. Two interlocked humans signify handcuffs. (i.e. hobos are hauled off to jail). A Caduceus symbol signifies the house has a medical doctor living in it. A cat signifies that a kind lady lives here. A wavy line (signifying water) above an X means fresh water and a campsite. Three diagonal lines means it’s not a safe place. A square with a slanted roof (signifying a house) with an X through it means that the house has already been “burned” or “tricked” by another hobo and is not a trusting house. Two shovels, signifying work was available (Shovels, because most hobos did manual labor). [...], in Hobo, Wikipedia.
(3) [...] Swarm Intelligence (SI) is the property of a system whereby the collective behaviors of entities interacting locally with their environment cause coherent functional global patterns to emerge. SI provides a basis with which it is possible to explore collective (or distributed) problem solving without centralized control or the provision of a global model (Stan Franklin, Coordination without Communication, talk at Memphis Univ., USA, 1996). [...] (here)
Hobo or tramp markings at Algiers entrance to Canal Street Ferry across Mississippi River, New Orleans. Ferry is free for pedestrians or on bicycle. "X" means "OK", slashed circle "Good way to go". (via Wikipedia above).
(4) [...] – Positive feedback, f+: in contrast to negative feedback, positive feedback generally promotes changes in the system (the majority of SO systems use them). The ex-plosive growth of the human population provides a familiar example of the effect of positive feedback. The snowballing auto catalytic effect of f+ takes an initial change in a system (due to amplification of fluctuations; a minimal and natural local cluster of objects could be a starting point) and reinforces that change in the same direction as the initial deviation. Self-enhancement, amplification, facilitation, and auto catalysis are all terms used to describe positive feedback. Another example could be provided by the clustering or aggregation of individuals. Many birds, such as seagulls nest in large colonies. Group nesting evidently provides individuals with certain benefits, such as better detection of predators or greater ease in finding food. The mechanism in this case is imitation : birds preparing to nest are attracted to sites where other birds are already nesting, while the behavioral rule could be synthesized as “I nest close where you nest“. The key point is that aggregation of nesting birds at a particular site is not purely a consequence of each bird being attracted to the site per se. Rather, the aggregation evidently arises primarily because each bird is attracted to others. On social insect societies, f+ could be illustrated by the pheromone reinforcement on trails, allowing the entire colony to exploit some past and present solutions. Generally, as in the above cases, positive feedback is imposed implicitly on the system and locally by each one of the constituent units. Fireflies flashing in synchrony follow the rule, “I signal when you signal”, fish traveling in schools abide by the rule, “I go where you go”, and so forth. In humans, the “infectious” quality of a yawn of laughter is a familiar example of positive feedback of the form, “I do what you do“. Seeing a person yawning , or even just thinking of yawning, can trigger a yawn. There is however one associated risk, generally if f+ acts alone without the presence of negative feedbacks, which per si can play a critical role keeping under control this snowballing effect, providing inhibition to offset the amplification and helping to shape it into a particular pattern. Indeed, the amplifying nature of f+ means that it has the potential to produce destructive explosions or implosions in any process where it plays a role. Thus the behavioral rule may be more complicated than initially suggested, possessing both an autocatalytic as well as an antagonistic aspect. In the case of fish, the minimal behavioral rule could be “I nest where others nest, unless the area is overcrowded“. In this case both the positive and negative feedback may be coded into the behavioral rules of the fish. Finally, in other cases one finds that the inhibition arises automatically, often simply from physical constraints. Since in SO systems their organization arises entirely from multiple interactions, it is of critical importance to question how organisms acquire and act upon information. Basically through two forms: a) information gathered from one’s neighbors, and b) information gathered from work in progress, that is, stigmergy. In the case of animal groups, these internal interactions typically involve information transfers between individuals. Biologists have recently recognized that information can flow within groups via two distinct pathways – signals and cues. Signals are stimuli shaped by natural selection specifically to convey information, whereas cues are stimuli that convey information only incidentally. The distinction between signals and cues is illustrated by the difference ant and deer trails. The chemical trail deposited by ants as they return from a desirable food source is a signal. Over evolutionary time such trails have been molded by natural selection for the purpose of sharing with nestmates information about the location of rich food sources. In contrast, the rutted trails made by deer walking through the woods is a cue, not shaped by natural selection for communication among deer but are a simple by-product of animals walking along the same path. SO systems are based on both, but whereas signals tends to be conspicuous, since natural selection has shaped signals to be strong and effective displays, information transfer via cues is often more subtle and based on incidental stimuli in an organism’s social environment. [...], in Social Cognitive Maps, Swarm Collective Perception and Distributed Search on Dynamic Landscapes.
Stick Me! sticker in plain nature over Aljezur, Algarve (South of Portugal). Unknow author. "Copyrigthed nature" or a way of saying "I was here. I am connected. You could also be connected. We are all connected" ?!
It’s not everyday we see a 40 year ideology collapsing through a dramatic act of contrition. It has happened just a few hours ago (check video above), yesterday in the “financial crisis” congressional hearing in Washington (23. Oct. 2008). Moreover, what seems remarkable, is that the recognition comes from one of his most universally respected founding fathers and defenders.
Alan Greenspan was the longest serving chairman in the Federal Reserve board history (1987-2006), and during this 18-year period of time he were perhaps the leading proponent of de-regulation along with libertarian capitalism, vividly expressed on his “The Age of Turbulence – Adventures in a New World” 2007 book, advocating above all issues, Adam Smith’s “Invisible Hand” that markets can regulate themselves. As it’s known, for his whole adult life, the former Fed chairman has been a devotee of the philosophy of Ayn Rand, who celebrated free-market capitalism as the world’s most moral economic order and advocated a strict laissez-faire approach to government regulation of the marketplace. Ironically, he was a regulator that did not believed in any regulation at all.
It is now quite a remarkable historic moment seeing former Federal Reserve chairman, a lifelong champion of free markets, publicly questioning the philosophy that guided him throughout his years as the world’s most powerful economic policymaker. A philosophy followed and strongly defended by him (along with many others like Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan), at least in the last 40 years, as he himself acknowledged yesterday. Asked by the congressional committee chairman, whether his free-market convictions pushed him to make wrong decisions, especially his failure to rein in unsafe mortgage lending practices, Greenspan replied that indeed he had found a flaw in his ideology, one that left him very distressed. “In other words, you found that your view of the world, your ideology was not right?” he was asked:
“Absolutely, precisely“, replied Greenspan. “That’s precisely the reason I was shocked, because I have been going for 40 years or more with very considerable evidence it was working exceptionally well“. Albeit he was surely one of the most influential voices for de-regulation: “There is nothing in Federal regulation that makes it superior to Market regulation”, said Greenspan back in 1994, in one among many of his past radical free-market statements.
I presume we now all wonder, where was Greenspan, when back in 2003 one of the most prestigiously recognized and legendary financial investors such as Warren Buffet, called credit default obligations and derivatives “weapons of financial mass destruction“? Or where was he when Princeton Professor of Economics, Paul Krugman – the recent Nobel laureate – said back in 2006 that “If anyone is to blame on the current situation (sub prime) is Mr Greenspan who poopooed warnings about an emerging bubble and did nothing to crack down on irresponsible lending“. Or what did he, Greenspan itself, said just a few days after ENRON collapsed?
People working in complex systems – and surely financial markets are one of them (yes, for the past 4-5 years including these present turbulent times I am working hard in this area as well) – for long know that any systemic structure could collapse if only positive-feedbacks are injected into them, creating an auto-catalytic snow-ball effect, leading among other things to a power-law like Black Swan. Indeed power-laws are a striking powerful signature. This is specially true when we address self-organization (read it in the present context as self-regulation). In order to be a truly self-regulated system, financial markets should also be embedded with negative-feedbacks as well, as I have addressed in a post about finance and complex systems one month ago. In fact, in order to emerge as a truly self-organized system, self-interest, should constitute just one among many of the ingredients over the entire financial system, and not the isolated unique ingredient. Self-interest promotes amplification and positive feedback, which is – as I recognize – necessary. However, left alone, promotes instead dramatic snowballing drifts over chaotic regimes, due to it’s intrinsic amplification. What’s amazing (at least for me), is that Alan Greenspan just recognized that in a tiny few seconds along his current discourse (check video above), pointing it to the precise key-word:
[...] I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organizations, specifically banks and others, was such that they were best capable of protecting their own shareholders. [...] So the problem, here is something which looked to be as a very solid edifice, and indeed a critical pillar to market competition and free-markets, did breakdown and I think that, as I said, shock me. I still do not fully understand why it happened, and obviously to the extend, that I figure out where it happened and why, … aaaaaa, … I will change my views. If the facts change I will change. [...]
As a result, “the whole intellectual edifice” of risk management collapsed, Greenspan said. In what regards his unexpected words yesterday at the congressional hearing, at least, I frankly praise him for his huge intellectual courage and present honesty. In the end, it seems that during the past 18 years, former FED chair was nothing else then a simple-man driven by his own blind faith on markets, from which he apparently comes out now. Unfortunately, only now at a very high price. Meanwhile as we know, severe consequences are here to stay, as was already evident when Greenspan addressed the House Financial Services Committee on 2003 (video below). Let’s hope that all these will not be forgotten in 3 decades from now (though, I doubt it – after all, nothing really serious came out from the entitled 3-man dream-team Bush-Sarkozy-Barroso “new global finance order” summit at Camp David last weekend, as expected):
“You have told the American people that you support a trade policy which is selling them out.” – Rep. Bernard Sanders to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on 7/16/03. Rep. Bernard Sanders (Independent-Vermont), now a US Senator, dresses down Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan in front of the House Financial Services Committee on 7/16/03.
Transition behavior of one Artificial Ant Colony in presence of a sudden change in his artificial digital image Habitat, between two different Digital Grey Images (face of Einstein and a Map). Created with an Artificial Ant Colony, that uses images as Habitats, being sensible to their gray levels [in, V. Ramos, F. Almeida, "Artificial Ant Colonies in Digital Image Habitats - a mass behavior effect study on Pattern Recognition", ANTS'00 Conf., Brussels, Belgium, 2000].
After “Einstein face” is injected as a substrate at t=0, 100 iterations occur. At this point you could recognize the face. Then, a new substrate (a new “environmental condition”) is imposed (Map image). The colony then adapts quickly to this new situation, losing their collective memory of past contours.
In white, the higher levels of pheromone (a chemical evaporative sugar substance used by swarms on their orientation trough out the trails). It’s exactly this artificial evaporation and the computational ant collective group synergy reallocating their upgrades of pheromone at interesting places, that allows for the emergence of adaptation and “perception” of new images. Only some of the 6000 iterations processed are represented. The system does not have any type of hierarchy, and ants communicate only in indirect forms, through out the successive alteration that they found on the Habitat. If you however, inject Einstein image again as a substrate, the whole ant society will converge again to it, but much faster than the first time, due to the residual memory distributed in the environment.
As a whole, the system is constantly trying to establish a proper compromise between memory (past solutions – via pheromone reinforcement) and novel ones in order to adapt (new conditions on the habitat, through pheromone evaporation). The right compromise, ables the system to tackle two contradictory situations: keeping some memory while learning something radically new. Antagonist features such as exploration and exploitation are tackled this way.
Figure – From top left to bottom right, a sequential data-items clustering task performed by an artificial ant colony. The system is able to cope with unforeseen data items in real-time, that is, as data appears in a continuous basis over a large period of time. Also, as time evolves, spatial entropy decreases.
[] Vitorino Ramos, Ajith Abraham, Swarms on Continuous Data, in CEC´03 – Congress on Evolutionary Computation, IEEE Press, ISBN 078-0378-04-0, pp.1370-1375, Canberra, Australia, 8-12 Dec. 2003.
While being it extremely important, many Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) systems have the inability to perform classification and visualization in a continuous basis or to self-organize new data-items into the older ones (even more into new labels if necessary), which can be crucial in KDD – Knowledge Discovery, Retrieval and Data Mining Systems (interactive and online forms of Web Applications are just one example). This disadvantage is also present in more recent approaches using Self-Organizing Maps. On the present work, and exploiting past successes in recently proposed Stigmergic Ant Systems a robust online classifier is presented, which produces class decisions on a continuous stream data, allowing for continuous mappings. Results show that increasingly better results are achieved, as demonstrated by other authors in different areas.
(to obtain the respective PDF file follow link above or visit chemoton.org)
Many man made and naturally occurring phenomena (being inherently complex systems), including city sizes, incomes, word frequencies, internet links, social networks and earthquake magnitudes, are distributed according to a power-law distribution. One under f Zipf’s law follows the same characteristic, or pink noise. Here is a possible long list, collected year after year, since the 1910’s up to now – 2008 (which I vividly recommend). From vacuum tubes to trading activities in world financial markets. Even, we could easily found them on Pollock’s paintings (recently here). Back in 2002, I have addressed some of his painting features (mostly fractal) regarding the theme “Emergent Aesthetics in Autonomous Collective Systems“. Astonishingly, without having a clue what fractal dimension’s would be, Jackson increased his fractal signatures year over year, while getting old. Indeed, “Action painting”, has he call it, mainly using his body motion and a bucket, were largely enough.
Financial markets are indeed complex systems, even if they are far from being self-regulated. Much after this recent black Monday, I have made here some notes regarding Self-Organization and finance, over two weeks or so. Their basic features – as I see it. However- essentially what brings me here today is-, what happens to their frequency? Are phenomena like the current financial crisis, frequent? Well, much of that depends on our knowledge on power-laws. Good news is that we know how many of them will occur in a very large time window, bad news is that, we don’t know when will they precisely occur. As in Earthquakes (check this out). Does this impel us to do nothing? Not at all. We can’t do anything about earthquakes (at least for now - except prevent them), however we can establish some ground smart rules in order to avoid financial systems to collapse in turmoil (that is, tune them in the precise physical regime). Power-laws are not only our wake-up call, as they are a signature. For good or for worse. It seems that we are all playing across the planet, a reversed El Farol Bar problem. If that’s somehow true we all should ask new questions like: In what frequency should we go to a bar ?! In other words, should we all run to the banks now, asking for our deposits?
Any polynomial relationship that exhibits the property of scale invariance is a Power-Law. Power-law implies that small occurrences are extremely common, whereas large instances are extremely rare (similarly over maps and cities - if you have time, found out the foundation of Berlin city over time). As the large quantity of small dots + low frequency of large dots we may found on Jackson Pollock paintings. The same goes for Black-Swans.
Jackson Pollock in action - As reported somehow recently by Nature magazine (Sept., 13, 2000), research suggests that the abstract works of artists such as Jackson Pollock are esthetically pleasing because they obey fractal rules similar to those found on the natural world. Pollock was known to have swung his paint back and forth like a pendulum, using a can on the end of a string with a hole punched in it. Researchers (Jensen) have found that if a swinging pendulum is hit with a hammer at just the right frequency (slightly less than the natural rhythm of the pendulum), its motion becomes chaotic and the paint traces out very convincing "fake Pollocks". However, the artist had no idea of fractals or chaotic motion, while dot distribution over Pollock's paintings indeed follow a power-law.
A Black Swan is a highly improbable event that has three characteristics: It is unpredictable, it has incredible impact, and after it happens we invent a reason for it that makes it seem less probable. For those of you that did not have read 2007 Taleb’s book (picture above), wondering what a Black Swan is, or question yourself from where the name arises, just jump for a quick look over here. Nassim started to wrote his book in 2003. Finished it in 2006. So, in what way this “funny” distribution regards financial markets? Well, for many of us now, it his surprising that he have wrote this, back then:
[...] Globalization creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. In other words it creates devastating Black Swans. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. Financial Institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. Almost all banks are interrelated. So the financial ecology is swelling into gigantic, incestuous, bureaucratic banks – when one fails, they all fall. The increased concentration among banks seems to have the effect of making financial crises less likely, but when they happen they are more global in scale and hit us very hard. We have moved from a diversified ecology of small banks, with varied lending policies, to a more homogeneous framework of firms that all resemble one another. True, we now have fewer failures, but when they occur ….I shiver at the thought. [...]
Were these words a Black Swan within the Black Swan book itself? Rather not. He continues directly to something we now know and face it in precise context. Please note that this was written in the period 2003-2006:
[...] Banks hire dull people and train them to be even more dull. If they look conservative, it’s only because their loans go bust on rare, very rare occasions. But (…) bankers are not conservative at all. They are just phenomenally skilled at self-deception by burying the possibility of a large, devastating loss under the rug. [...] The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at its risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: their large staff of scientists deemed these events “unlikely”. [...]
What about the costs, and the memory of them? Yes, indeed memory is important while playing game-theory-like games, as his mainly in our daily reality, but in one-two generations it will be probably lost (I hope not), and once again all will start:
[...] the real-estate collapse of the early 1990s in which the now defunct savings and loan industry required a taxpayer-funded bailout of more than half a trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve bank protected them at our expense: when “conservative” bankers make profits, they get the benefits; when they are hurt, we pay the costs.
Should we be surprised? In fact, this is not new. Somehow, fallacy goes on (as George Monbiot tackle it with extreme precision over Guardian Journal very recently – Sep. 30). Not only we were not reacting to these power-law consequences, as many of those economic agents playing within the systems core itself, were thinking of something else:
[...] Once again, recall the story of banks hiding explosive risks in their portfolios. It is not a good idea to trust corporations with matters such as rare events because the performance of these executives is not observable on a short-term basis, and they will game the system by showing good performance so they can get their yearly bonus. The Achilles’ heel of capitalism is that if you make corporations compete, it is sometimes the one that is most exposed to the negative Black Swan that will appear to be the most for survival.[...] As if we did not have enough problems, banks are now more vulnerable to the Black Swan and the ludic fallacy than ever before with “scientists” among their staff taking care of exposures. The giant J. P. Morgan put the entire world at risk by introducing in the nineties RiskMetrics, a phony method aiming at managing people’s risks, causing the generalized use of the ludic fallacy, and bringing Dr. Johns into power in place of the skeptical Fat Tonys. (a related method called “Value-at-Risk,” which relies on the quantitative measurement of risk, has been spreading.) [...]
Starting with the distribution and frequency of these kind of events (among many others), all of these words were written in the period 2003-2006. Since then, you could follow Taleb’s war on “Value at Risk” over here. Or here, at Edge.org which I highly recommend.
Meanwhile, apart from what markets are suffering and complex science may enlightened us, life goes on. Not necessarily as we supposed. As we know, reality, many times excels fiction; one single video frame could value one thousand words. Right at your neighborhood. As you may see below, consequences could be much worse than a tornado:
more about “Foreclosure Alley – SoCal Connected“, posted with vodpod
Fig. – (Above) A 3D toroidal fast changing landscape describing a Dynamic Optimization (DO) Control Problem (8 frames in total). (Bellow) A self-organized swarm emerging a characteristic flocking migration behaviour surpassing in intermediate steps some local optima over the 3D toroidal landscape (above), describing a Dynamic Optimization (DO) Control Problem. Over each foraging step, the swarm self-regulates his population and keeps tracking the extrema (44 frames in total). [extra details + PDF]
[] Vitorino Ramos, Fernandes, C., Rosa, A.C., Abraham, A., Computational Chemotaxis in Ants and Bacteria over Dynamic Environments, in CEC´07 – Congress on Evolutionary Computation, IEEE Press, USA, ISBN 1-4244-1340-0, pp. 1009-1017, Sep. 2007.
Chemotaxis can be defined as an innate behavioural response by an organism to a directional stimulus, in which bacteria, and other single-cell or multicellular organisms direct their movements according to certain chemicals in their environment. This is important for bacteria to find food (e.g., glucose) by swimming towards the highest concentration of food molecules, or to flee from poisons. Based on self-organized computational approaches and similar stigmergic concepts we derive a novel swarm intelligent algorithm. What strikes from these observations is that both eusocial insects as ant colonies and bacteria have similar natural mechanisms based on stigmergy in order to emerge coherent and sophisticated patterns of global collective behaviour. Keeping in mind the above characteristics we will present a simple model to tackle the collective adaptation of a social swarm based on real ant colony behaviors (SSA algorithm) for tracking extrema in dynamic environments and highly multimodal complex functions described in the well-know De Jong test suite. Later, for the purpose of comparison, a recent model of artificial bacterial foraging (BFOA algorithm) based on similar stigmergic features is described and analyzed. Final results indicate that the SSA collective intelligence is able to cope and quickly adapt to unforeseen situations even when over the same cooperative foraging period, the community is requested to deal with two different and contradictory purposes, while outperforming BFOA in adaptive speed. Results indicate that the present approach deals well in severe Dynamic Optimization problems.
(to obtain the respective PDF file follow link above or visit chemoton.org)
Swarm robotics is a new approach to the coordination of multirobot systems which consist of large numbers of mostly simple physical robots. It is supposed that a desired collective behavior emerges from the interactions between the robots and interactions of robots with the environment. This approach emerged on the field of artificial swarm intelligence, as well as the biological studies of insects, ants and other fields in nature, where swarm behavior occurs (check for more).
Possible laboratories around the world that follow this line of research include (Europe) Marco Dorigo’s Swarm-Bots Project in Brussels plus Swarm-Intelligent Systems Group, EPFL, in Lausanne, and CORO over Caltech, USA, among many others.
Image source: ITGO.COM (large size)
In what concerns Social Psychology, just check this out: Milgram et al.(1) found that if one person stood in a Manhattan street gazing at a sixth floor window, 20% of pedestrians looked up; if five people stood gazing, then 80% of people looked up.
As latest fraud facts told us last week in cascade manner (Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Lehman Brothers, AIG), essentially, the current financial crisis results from the fact that in order to be a truly self-organized, self-regulated adaptive evolving system as Adam Smith envisioned (back in 1776 – The Wealth of Nations), financial markets need not only to adopt Positive Feedback as they do (e.g., the one Milgram founded, above), but mainly – though in some proportion – Negative Feedback features as well, that is, some form of a priori outside Regulation - in other words, the context and environment of the entire “game” (check here for some basic features of Self-Organization -(2). Ill or badly defined environments among complex systems, lead to chaotic or unprecedented biased evolutionary pressures (e.g., many of the entities – read it as some companies -, cheaters playing economic games such as the Iterated Prisonners Dilemma IPD over Bounded Rationality – that should naturally “die”, in fact proliferate), turning to be counterproductive for the whole system. Self-Organization occurs in precise very-subtle-narrow regimes (“at the edge of chaos” – Christopher Langton, Santa Fe Institute), not over entire entropic regimes as the one we were facing, neither over the entire spectrum (Order, Semi-Order, Edge of Chaos, Chaos – check Stuart Kaufmann’s I, II, III, IV phases). They occur near them, not in them. In order to do so, among several other things (2), also Negative Feedback is necessary. As we know from complex systems, nature, as well as artificial intelligence, the system becomes too greedy and instable.
For instance, on social insect societies know to be self-organized, Positive Feedback (PF) could be illustrated by pheromone reinforcement on trails, allowing the entire colony to exploit some past and present solutions. Generally, as in the above cases, positive feedback is imposed implicitly on the system and locally by each one of the constituent units, whereas Negative Feedback is imposed explicitly mainly by environmental “pressure” conditions, promoting counter-balanced innovative solutions. Fireflies flashing in synchrony follow the PF rule, “I signal when you signal”, fish traveling in schools abide by the rule, “I go where you go”, and so forth. In Humans, the “infectious” quality of a yawn of laughter is a familiar example of positive feedback of the form, “I do what you do”. Seeing a person yawning, or even just thinking of yawning, can trigger a yawn. There is however one associated risk, generally if Positive Feedback acts alone without the presence of Negative Feedbacks, which per si can play a critical role keeping under control this snowballing effect, providing inhibition to offset the amplification and helping to shape it into a particular pattern (2). Indeed, the amplifying nature of Positive Feedback means that it has the potential to produce destructive explosions or implosions in any process where it plays a role. Thus – several biological studies express it – the behavioral rule may be more complicated than initially suggested, possessing both an autocatalytic as well as an antagonistic aspect (2).
The fundamentalist ultra-liberal strategy of “no regulation at all”, followed in recent years, believing ideologically – like a fatwa – that markets are a truly Darwinian CAS (Complex Adaptive System) where invisible hands operate every day in a perfect situation, lead us to a chaotic situation, where shimmering waves of panic proliferate through the world (check video below), constraining states to intervene in a a posteriori manner (the ongoing Paulson Plan). Though, the ultimate best option was to do it a priori, ceasing nations to sleep much of their time earlier in face of many disastrous – out of control – innovative as well as cannibalistic financial products invented in the last decade (many of them being nothing else than financial pyramid schemes, though sophisticated), without reasoning of possible and profound dramatic social costs. Alternatively, a priori smart intervention seems to be the only resource to avoid the current ongoing privatization of profits, and immoral massive losses nationalization, being payed by tax contributors across USA and Europe. Keeping in reasonable shape the wealthy resource that finance markets really are and could be for all of us: promoting robust and innovative companies.
{ [VIDEO] Shimmering Giant Honeybees from Science News on Vimeo.
For some, Financial Markets in crisis could be seen as shimmering waves across the globe, however they are far from being self-organized as honeybee colonies. The invisible hand metaphor originates with Adam Smith in The Wealth of Nations (1776). Bernard Mandeville made a similar point with his Fable of the Bees (1705), which fancifully describes human society as a wondrously productive bee hive, even though each bee is as selfish as can be (3). - Video and article (see 8). }
Washington is right now asking for help and money to China, as well as indulging many other countries in the world to step in. At the same moment, in UK, in the aftermath of the Northern Rock takeover, some big and many medium companies are now selling themselves for short, in Belgium, FORTIS is on the verge, and in Ireland – once the first example of economic bloom in Europe -, the first technical ressence in many years is now fully recognized. France seems to go next. Partial-nationalizations are now occuring from Iceland to the sunny mediterranean Gibraltar. While, back in the US, a very recent LA Times-Bloomberg poll revealed that 60% of Americans claim for some sort of state intervention. In face of this facts, ultra liberals appeal to two typical arguments: (first) that the current phenomena is inevitable (no comments on my side on that, since 1929 till now nothing of this dimension happened before), and (second) markets evolve, some die and some prosper, forgetting however that markets are far from being perfect, and truly self-organized. The question is not if some die (which they should), the question is why the current system is not being able to self-control the proliferation of cheaters and pyramidal schemes on the entire pool of economic agents, in contrast to what happens in truly evolvable economic agents playing IPD or other economic-like games, showing profound traces of self-organized features. Sadly, among many of these if not all, ultra market liberalism evangelists, self-organization is wrongly recognized as self-interest (check 3). Self-interest taken to this limits, is not only their repeated mantra, used to quote “there ain’t those things as a free lunch” (NFL) over and over again as their blindness. NFL after all, is instead broadly recognized as being connected to robustness in computational search and optimization areas. Unfornately, they will never recognize that even under some complex co-evolutionary domains (nature is full of them; where explicit targets or interests were not embedded on the evolutionary algorithm), indeed free-lunches were found (5).
In fact, in order to emerge as a truly self-organized system, self-interest, should constitute just one among many of the ingredients over the entire financial system, and not the isolated unique ingredient. Self-interest promotes amplification and positive feedback, which is – as I recognize – necessary. However, left alone, promotes instead dramatic snowballing drifts over chaotic regimes, due to it’s intrinsic amplification. It’s necessary to promote negative feedbacks as well. This is recognized for some time in neurosciences, neurocomputation and learning (check LTD – long term synaptic depression) (6,7):
- Learning by reinforcement good responses (Positive Feedback) is a process that by definition never stops. There is not an explicit rule that ends the reinforcement whenever the goal has been reached. On the other hand, if learning proceeds only by correcting mistakes it implies a process that stops as soon as the goal is achieved. This prevents formation of “deep holes“, i.e. highly stable states from which adaptation to new rules is difficult and slow, requiring, perhaps, a significant amount of random noise.
- If an adaptive system is placed on a new environment, or otherwise subjected to learning something new, the likelihood of making mistakes is generally larger than the chance to be initially right. Therefore, the opportunity to shape synapses is larger for the adaptive mechanism that only relies on mistakes, leading to faster convergence.
Of course, being arrived here at this turmoil chaotic stage, we are nowadays assisting – ironically - to a dramatization of Bush’s Administration speeches. Bush words ”Markets are not working properly” are indeed surprising from what we are used to expect from him, his office, as his known to be quite unusual words within his neo-liberal Haliburton centered - pro oil pro preemptive war – social networks (at VisualComplexity), however, subliminally he’s nothing else then reinforcing McCain’s election over Obama, as if great part of the actual crisis did not derived from the Republican past “I see nothing, I hear nothing and I say nothing” political strategy. Lying saying the truth, again ironically, this is the quickest formula to maintain things as they were before, the entire status quo going on, while markets in despair applaud -awkwardly - state interventions for the first time (or second to be precise – 1929; also check October 1907’s actions under J.P. Morgan). Being a liberal I have always believed that some ground-smart rules are always necessary. Let’s face it: even when we drive our car over a highway.
Take the following example. For some moments image yourself to puzzle out how to create a mathematical-algorithmic model on how a flock of birds fly in collective formation. You could on one hand try to model the dynamics of each part, using differential equations, in order to achieve somehow the global behaviour – however, the phenomena is so complex and intricate that differential equations could not handle it. On the other hand, you could try to observe the phenomena innumerable times while envisioning a set of rules, based on the behaviour of the whole system, however as is typical in Self-Organized complex phenomena’s there is no pre-commitment to any particular representational scheme: the desired behaviour is distributed and roughly specified simultaneously among many parts, and there is minimal specification of the mechanism required to generate that behaviour, i.e. the global behaviour mainly evolves from the many relations of multiple simple behaviours. Parts and wholes behave differently. Relations are the key. Surprisingly, and having self-organization theory in mind, you could envision 3, and just 3 simple generative rules following positive and negative feedback features that are able to precisely model this complex phenomena (check Boids): (one) Separation: steer to avoid crowding local flockmates, (two) Alignment: steer towards the average heading of local flockmates, and (three) Cohesion: steer to move toward the average position of local flockmates. Rather, non-linear phenomena are most appropriately treated by a synthetic approach, where synthesis means “the combining of separate elements or substances to form a coherent whole’. In non-linear systems, the parts must be treated in each other’s presence, rather than independently from one another, because they behave very differently in each other’s presence than we would expect from a study of the parts in isolation (4). In order to form the complex coherent whole, antagonistic measures are needed. Realistic counter-powers on the entire global economic TIC-TAC.
That’s why also, being a liberal, I defend a priori over a posteriori interventions. States, after all, were not created or envisioned to be omnipresent firefighters, specially to those few that under the 80-20 Pareto rule umbrella, profited before, month after month, with the current aftermath ([...] And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country [...], John F. Kennedy). Not only Size is important (1) (critical mass) as well as Time, that is, over when should we lay down initial conditions in order to emerge the complex whole to flourish on the precise and desirable Self-Organized domain. Even better than nothing, as I believe, the current and late a posteriori state intervention will only endure the collective illusion for a while.
Not only have we recognized that markets are not perfect as Smith’s Invisible Hand metaphor seems to be dead wrong (3). As David Sloan Wilson tackles it:
[..] I hope that our economy recovers, but the time has come to declare its guiding metaphor dead. This is the metaphor of the invisible hand, which makes it seem as if the narrow pursuit of self-interest miraculously results in a well-functioning society. [...] The collapse of our economy for lack of regulation was preceded by the collapse of rational choice theory. It became clear that the single minimalistic principle of self-interest could not explain the length and breadth of human behavior. [...] Mandeville could not have been more wrong about actual nature of bees. There is a difference between self-organization and self-interest. Beehives and other social insect colonies are indeed self-organized. There is no single bee commanding the troops, certainly not the queen. Each bee plays a limited role in the economy of the hive, just as a single neuron plays a limited role in the economy of the brain. The intelligence of both can be found in the interactions among the parts, which have been shaped by natural selection operating over countless generations. But bee behavior cannot be reduced to a single principle of self-interest, any more than human behavior. There are solid citizens and cheaters even among the bees, and the cheaters are held at bay only by a regulatory system called “policing” by the biologists who study them. [...] We can argue at length about smart vs. dumb regulation but the concept of no regulation should be forever laid to rest. [...]
Somehow, within the middle of countless wrecks, affecting innumerable millions of people thorough out the planet (even those not playing at the stock-exchange), via energy, tax, food and life cost raisings, we are still assisting at truly interesting phase-transition times. The question is: will we learn from it, or will we maintain the recent blind faith that markets, by themselves, will drive us all – similarly to communism – to the land of milk and honey?
- in Milgram, Bickerman and Berkowitz, “Note on the Drawing Power of Crowds of Different Size“, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol 13(2), Oct 1969, pp. 79-82. Abstract: Reports on the relationship between the size of a stimulus crowd, standing on a busy city street looking up at a building, and the response of passersby. As the size of the stimulus crowd was increased a greater proportion of passersby adopted the behavior of the crowd. Data included 1424 pedestrians. The results suggest a modification of the J. S. Coleman and J. James model of the size of free-forming groups to include a contagion assumption.
- in V. Ramos et al., “Social Cognitive Maps, Swarm Collective Perception and Distributed Search on Dynamic Landscapes“, 2007. Abstract: Swarm Intelligence (SI) is the property of a system whereby the collective behaviors of (unsophisticated) entities interacting locally with their environment cause coherent functional global patterns to emerge. SI provides a basis with wich it is possible to explore collective (or distributed) problem solving without centralized control or the provision of a globalmodel. To tackle the formation of a coherent socialcollective intelligence from individual behaviors, we discuss several concepts related to Self-Organization, Stigmergy and Social Foraging in animals. Then, in a more abstract level we suggest and stress the role played not only by the environmentalmedia as a driving force for societal learning, as well as by positive and negative feedbacks produced by the many interactions among agents. Finally, presenting a simple model based on the above features, we will adressthe collective adaptation of a socialcommunity to a cultural (environmental, contextual) or media informational dynamical landscape, represented here – for the purpose of different experiments – by several three-dimensional mathematical functions that suddenly change over time. Results indicate that the collective intelligence is able to cope and quickly adapt to unforseensituations even when over the same cooperative foraging period, the community is requested to deal with two different and contradictory purposes.
- in David Sloan Wilson, “The Invisible Hand is Dead. Long Live (Smart) Regulation“, in Axis of Logic, Sep. 2008.
- in V. Ramos, “On the Implicit and on the Artificial – Morphogenesis and Emergent Aesthetics in Autonomous Collective Systems“, in ARCHITOPIA Book, Art, Architecture and Science, INSTITUT D’ART CONTEMPORAIN, J.L. Maubant et al. (Eds.), pp. 25-57, Chapter 2, ISBN 2905985631 – EAN 9782905985637, France, Feb. 2002.
- in Wolpert, D.H., and Macready, W.G. (2005) “Coevolutionary free lunches,” IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation, 9(6): 721-735.
- in Chialvo, D.R., Bak, P., “Learning from Mistakes“. Neuroscience, Vol. 90 (4), pp. 1137-1148, 1999.
- in Bak, P., Chialvo, D.R., “Adaptive Learning by Extremal Dynamics and Negative Feedback“, Phys. Rev. E., Vol. 63, p. 031912, 2001.
- in Susan Gaidos, “Honeybees do the Wave“, in Science News, Web edition, Sep. 2008.
Video – Thousands of starlings birds gathering in flocks, flying in formations while emerging complex patterns on S.W. Scotland (more photos & video by/at Fresh Pics, 2007). Here for an artificial version with different purposes. They are not birds, instead an entirely different new animal.
[...] In contrast to negative feedback, positive feedback (PF) generally promotes changes in the system (the majority of self-organizing SO systems use them). The explosive growth of the human population provides a familiar example of the effect of positive feedback. The snowballing autocatalytic effect of PF takes an initial change in a system (due to amplification of fluctuations; a minimal and natural local cluster of objects could be a starting point) and reinforces that change in the same direction as the initial deviation. Self-enhancement, amplification, facilitation, and autocatalysis are all terms used to describe positive feedback [9]. Another example could be provided by the clustering or aggregation of individuals. Many birds, such as seagulls nest in large colonies. Group nesting evidently provides individuals with certain benefits, such as better detection of predators or greater ease in finding food. The mechanism in this case is imitation (1): birds preparing to nest are attracted to sites where other birds are already nesting, while the behavioral rule could be synthesized as “I nest close where you nest”. The key point is that aggregation of nesting birds at a particular site is not purely a consequence of each bird being attracted to the site per se. Rather, the aggregation evidently arises primarily because each bird is attracted to others (check for further references on [7,9]). On social insect societies, PF could be illustrated by the pheromone reinforcement on trails, allowing the entire colony to exploit some past and present solutions. Generally, as in the above cases, positive feedback is imposed implicitly on the system and locally by each one of the constituent units. Fireflies flashing in synchrony [49] follow the rule, “I signal when you signal”, fish traveling in schools abide by the rule, “I go where you go”, and so forth. In humans, the “infectious” quality of a yawn of laughter is a familiar example of positive feedback of the form, “I do what you do”. Seeing a person yawning (2), or even just thinking of yawning, can trigger a yawn [9]. There is however one associated risk, generally if PF acts alone without the presence of negative feedbacks, which per si can play a critical role keeping under control this snowballing effect, providing inhibition to offset the amplification and helping to shape it into a particular pattern. Indeed, the amplifying nature of PF means that it has the potential to produce destructive explosions or implosions in any process where it plays a role. Thus the behavioral rule may be more complicated than initially suggested, possessing both an autocatalytic as well as an antagonistic aspect. In the case of fish [9], the minimal behavioral rule could be “I nest where others nest, unless the area is overcrowded” (HEY !! here we go again to the El Farol Bar problem!). In this case both positive and negative feedback may be coded into the behavioral rules of the fish. Finally, in other cases one finds that the inhibition arises automatically, often simply from physical constraints. [...]
in, V. Ramos et al., “Social Cognitive Maps, Swarm Collective Perception and Distributed Search on Dynamic Landscapes“.
(1) See also on this subject the seminal sociological work of Gabriel Tarde; Tarde, G., Les Lois de l’Imitation, Eds. du Seuil (2001), 1st Edition, Eds. Alcan, Paris, 1890.
(2) Similarly, Milgram et al (Milgram, Bickerman and Berkowitz, “Note on the Drawing Power of Crowds of Different Size”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 13, 1969) found that if one person stood in a Manhattan street gazing at a sixth floor window, 20% of pedestrians looked up; if five people stood gazing, then 80% of people looked up.
(to obtain the respective PDF file follow this link or visit chemoton.org)
Image Classification of Shellfish Larvae Digital Images using Swarm Intelligence. On the left a compendium of 9 raw images (out of 20 samples) used in the present project. Respective segmented images on the rigth.
[] Vitorino Ramos, Jonathan Campbell, John Slater, John Gillespie, Ivan F. Bendezu and Fionn Murtagh, Swarming around Shellfish Larvae Images, in WCLC-05, 2nd World Congress on Lateral Computing, Bangalore, India, 16-18 Dec., 2005.
The collection of wild larvae seed as a source of raw material is a major sub industry of shellfish aquaculture. To predict when, where and in what quantities wild seed will be available, it is necessary to track the appearance and growth of planktonic larvae. One of the most difficult groups to identify, particularly at the species level are the Bivalvia. This difficulty arises from the fact that fundamentally all bivalve larvae have a similar shape and colour. Identification based on gross morphological appearance is limited by the time-consuming nature of the microscopic examination and by the limited availability of expertise in this field. Molecular and immunological methods are also being studied. We describe the application of computational pattern recognition methods to the automated identification and size analysis of scallop larvae. For identification, the shape features used are binary invariant moments; that is, the features are invariant to shift (position within the image), scale (induced either by growth or differential image magnification) and rotation. Images of a sample of scallop and non-scallop larvae covering a range of maturities have been analysed. In order to overcome the automatic identification, as well as to allow the system to receive new unknown samples at any moment, a self-organized and unsupervised ant-like clustering algorithm based on Swarm Intelligence is proposed, followed by simple k-NNR nearest neighbour classification on the final map. Results achieve a full recognition rate of 100% under several situations (k =1 or 3).
(to obtain the respective PDF file follow link above or visit chemoton.org)
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